Positioning and Outlook - 2026-09-29
General & impersonal research commentary. Not investment advice.
Published 2026-09-29
Recent Events
Macro & policy
2026-09-17Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates for First Time Since 2023
2026-09-16VIEW Stocks pull back after Fed raises rates, points to another hike this year
2026-09-24Fed Communication: 15/100 (MODERATE)
2026-09-17BOJ lifts rates to 31-year high, pivots towards preemptive inflation fight
Credit & corporate
2026-09-24Buybacks: 13199 active, $4677B TTM
2026-09-24HY OAS Weekly: FLAT → hold cash
2026-09-24Credit survival: avg 29/100, 40 in danger
2026-09-17Buybacks: 12947 active, $4712B TTM
On the calendar
2026-09-23Barr, A Long-Term View on the Costs of Shelter
2026-09-22Jefferson, Discount Window Modernization and Treasury Market Functioning
2026-09-18Bowman, Initial Findings from Independent Review of Silicon Valley Bank
Notable news
2026-09-24Axon reports Q1 2026 revenue of $807 million, up 34% year over year
2026-09-24UBS considers merger to move out of Switzerland - report - TradingView
2026-09-24Citigroup: Meta's Muse Just Created The Last Thing This Name Needs - Sell (NYSE:C) - Seeking Alpha
Upcoming Events
2026-09-28● phase3 readout: OCU410ST (OCGN) (US)
2026-09-28● phase2 readout: INCB099280 (INCY) (US)
2026-09-28● 26-Week BILL auction (US)
2026-09-28● 13-Week BILL auction (US)
2026-09-28● phase2 readout: Mesenchymal Stromal Cells (UTHR) (US)
2026-09-28● phase3 readout: Sonelokimab (MLTX) (US)
2026-09-28● phase2 readout: AZD0901 (AZN) (US)
2026-10-20● PBOC Loan Prime Rate (LPR) fixing (CN)
2026-10-28● FOMC monetary policy decision (US)
2026-10-29● ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting (EZ)
Plus 797 corporate earnings reports scheduled in the window.
Macro Projections
Cyclical ▬●●● expires Dec 28, 2026
The Federal Reserve holds the policy rate unchanged through end-2026 (no cut at any remaining 2026 meeting).
Cross-validated across three domains: the fed_reaction model puts hold propensity at 85.6% with intervention propensity stable at 17.1% and SOFR–FF at +2bp (no stress forcing action); Kalshi prices a cut before 2027 at only 4.6% and FFR >4.00% at 97%; and Kalshi prices Dec CPI YoY >3.1% at 96%, consistent with sticky inflation blocking easing. This is the muddle-through baseline.
Cyclical ▬●●● expires Dec 28, 2026
The US 30Y Treasury yield remains at or above 5.40% at year-end 2026, and the global long-end repricing stays synchronized (at least one of JGB 30Y, Bund 10Y, or Gilt 10Y makes a fresh cycle high by then).
The 30Y is at 5.561%, accelerating positive at the 98.3rd percentile; JGB 30Y (4.112%, 100th pctl), Bund 10Y (3.615%, 99.1st pctl) and Gilt 10Y (5.344%, 99.9th pctl) are all accelerating positive together, the CROSS differentials confirm a global term-premium move, not a US idiosyncrasy. The carry model's dominant state is slow-motion crack (48.5%) with disorderly unwind falling.
Cyclical ▼●●● expires Dec 28, 2026
HY OAS widens above 3.25% at some point before end-2026 (from 2.93% on 9/25), without reaching disorderly levels above 5.0%.
HY OAS has widened 28bp in two weeks (2.65%→2.93%), the credit-quality trajectory is accelerating positive at 3.51 (though its as-of is 8/31, a month old, so weighted cautiously), and equity holders earn a 2.41% earnings yield against a 5.24% risk-free 10Y, a valuation anchor that historically pulls credit wider when rates vol (MOVE 101.8bp, +20.6bp/wk) is rising. The weekly HY analysis flags HIGH false-bottom risk.
Near term ▬●●● expires Oct 29, 2026
Equity vol stays calm through October: VIX closes no day above 20 despite the data gauntlet (GDP/PCE 9/30, NFP 10/2, CPI 10/14), even as MOVE remains above 90bp.
The vol divergence is the status quo and muddle-through says it persists near-term: VIX 14.21 and accelerating negative, term structure 0.829 in contango, SKEW a normal 144.9, while MOVE (101.8bp) carries the stress. GDP ~3% (Kalshi 49% for >3.0%) and payrolls >40k at 83% argue against a growth scare catalyst.
Cyclical ▲●●● expires Dec 28, 2026
Brent crude trades above $100.50/bbl at some point before end-2026, driven by geopolitical escalation rather than demand.
Cross-domain divergence: Kalshi prices Brent >$100.50 at only 26% while the geopolitical substrate shows Iran/Hormuz in near closure for 37 days, Israel-Gaza KINETIC, a fresh Houthi ship attack, and GPR at 232.3 (vs ~100 historical mean, >150 elevated), an unpriced tail this layer exists to surface. The oil-supply-shock→CPI mechanism edge (86% hit rate, n=7) makes the consequence, not just the event, matter.
Secular ▼●●● expires Mar 28, 2027
US CPI inflation for the year ending December 2026 prints above 3.1% YoY, confirming the sticky-inflation leg of the higher-for-longer regime.
Cross-validated: Kalshi prices >3.1% at 96% and >3.4% at 94% (crowd pricing, Tier 2, treated as market estimate), the 10Y breakeven holds at 2.34% (71st percentile) with oil/commodity narratives (known_firing commodity-shock→inflation edge) pointing the same way, and a Fed model showing no easing pressure implies policy is not restrictive enough to force disinflation on this horizon. Direction tagged deteriorating b…
Positioning
| Name | Conviction score | Modelled drift |
|---|---|---|
| GE | 3.46 | +3.2% |
| HWM | 1.92 | +2.1% |
| CF | 1.89 | -0.8% |
| LMT | 1.82 | +3.7% |
| TPL | 1.81 | +2.0% |
| RTX | 1.73 | +3.6% |
merger arb completion → merger target arb spread ▲ · 88% base rate · n=506 · 60% pricedoil supply shock headline cpi → headline CPI ▲ · 86% base rate · n=7 · 60% pricedcommodity production loss → agricultural commodity ▲ · 80% base rate · n=5 · 40% priced
Model Portfolio
Cash 41.9%Other 31.8%Equity 12.3%Inflation-linked 8.5%Gold & metals 5.5%
| Name | Weight | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| Cash · 41.9% | ||
| Money Market | 37.2% | money-market / cash |
| DBC | 4.7% | commodities other |
| Equity · 12.3% | ||
| QUAL | 12.3% | global quality equity |
| Inflation-linked · 8.5% | ||
| SCHP | 5.9% | inflation-linked Treasuries |
| LTPZ | 2.6% | inflation-linked Treasuries |
| Other · 31.8% | ||
| EWJ | 4.4% | international |
| VTIP | 3.7% | model allocation |
| TPL | 3.1% | passthrough |
| EZU | 2.6% | international |
| GE | 1.8% | critical materials defense |
| EPI | 1.5% | international |
| ALB | 1.4% | critical materials defense |
| CCJ | 1.4% | critical materials defense |
| LDOS | 1.4% | critical materials defense |
| FCX | 1.3% | critical materials defense |
| SCCO | 1.2% | critical materials defense |
| NXE | 1.0% | critical materials defense |
| COPX | 0.8% | critical materials defense |
| LMT | 0.6% | critical materials defense |
| URA | 0.6% | critical materials defense |
| NOC | 0.5% | critical materials defense |
| RTX | 0.5% | critical materials defense |
| URNM | 0.4% | critical materials defense |
| NTR | 0.3% | critical materials defense |
| MP | 0.3% | critical materials defense |
| XAR | 0.3% | critical materials defense |
| UEC | 0.3% | critical materials defense |
| MOS | 0.3% | critical materials defense |
| UUUU | 0.3% | critical materials defense |
| CF | 0.2% | critical materials defense |
| ITA | 0.2% | critical materials defense |
| LIT | 0.2% | critical materials defense |
| HII | 0.2% | critical materials defense |
| SQM | 0.2% | critical materials defense |
| REMX | 0.2% | critical materials defense |
| HWM | 0.2% | critical materials defense |
| LEU | 0.1% | critical materials defense |
| LAC | 0.1% | critical materials defense |
| ICL | 0.1% | critical materials defense |
| DNN | 0.1% | critical materials defense |
| EWU | 0.0% | international |
| Gold & metals · 5.5% | ||
| IAU | 3.0% | gold / precious-metals |
| GDX | 1.5% | gold / precious-metals |
| WPM | 0.5% | gold / precious-metals |
| FNV | 0.4% | gold / precious-metals |
| SLV | 0.1% | gold / precious-metals |
Position notes
DBC 4.7%
Full research note
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund is an ETF tracking a diversified commodity index via futures contracts.
TPL 3.1%
Full research note
Texas Pacific Land owns land and earns royalties from oil & gas operations. It relies on third-party operators.
Bull case · Permian production continues to grow, lifting royalty volumes and revenue without capex or operating leverage. TPL’s $232M net cash and near‑zero debt provide a strong buffer, while steady buybacks and potential special dividends distribute the cash‑flow stream. A sustained oil price recovery above $80 would expand FCF further, underpinning the current multiple.
Bear case · The valuation is extreme: 42x EBITDA, 19.7x book, and 61x trailing earnings for a company with sub‑10% ROE and revenue growth below 5%. As a pure royalty play, TPL has no control over drilling activity or volumes—an energy downturn, Permian supply saturation, or water‑scarcity constraints could compress royalties and the multiple simultaneously, akin to prior royalty‑land overvaluation cycles.
Key risks
• Oil price decline eroding royalty revenue and sentiment toward energy‑land multiples.
• Permian Basin regulatory or water constraints slowing drilling and reducing future royalty streams.
• ESG and climate transition risk permanently compressing the valuation multiple for mineral rights.
• Concentrated single‑basin exposure with no diversification, magnifying local operational shocks.
• Extremely low liquidity and high price‑to‑book make the stock vulnerable to forced‑seller liquidation risk.
GE 1.8%
Full research note
Civil & military jet engine maker facing tariff & supply chain headwinds.
Bull case · Commercial aftermarket revenue continues to grow as global air travel recovers and older fleets require maintenance. Defense procurement accelerates following the Iran conflict, directly benefiting GE's military engine and systems segments. Operating margins are well above sector medians (19.2% vs 4.5%), and free cash flow margins (21.4%) support debt reduction and capital returns. The durable competitive position in a consolidated industry allows for compounding returns over multiple cycles.
Bear case · Commercial aerospace cycles could reverse if a recession reduces travel demand, compressing aftermarket revenue. Defense budgets may face political pressure, leading to program delays or cancellations. GE carries high financial leverage (debt/equity ~1.09) which amplifies earnings volatility. Supply-chain disruptions from geopolitical tensions (e.g., Hormuz, rare-earth dependencies) could raise input costs and delay deliveries. Short-term momentum is negative, and the stock may remain under pressure in a risk-off environment.
Key risks
• Cyclicality of commercial aerospace demand
• Defense budget uncertainty and potential procurement delays
• High leverage constraining financial flexibility
• Geopolitical disruptions affecting supply chains
• Foreign-exchange risk from non-USD revenue
• Execution risk in cost reduction and aftermarket growth
ALB 1.4%
Full research note
Albemarle produces lithium, bromine, and catalyst products for industrial use.
CCJ 1.4%
Full research note
Cameco is a uranium producer supplying fuel services to nuclear utilities.
Bull case · The strongest bull case hinges on the accelerating AI data center power buildout and Cameco's strategic downstream integration. Recent catalysts include Cameco's June 2026 move to increase its stake in the tier-one Cigar Lake mine to 57.4%, alongside Westinghouse (49% owned by Cameco) securing a central role in an $80 billion U.S. government partnership to deploy AP1000 reactors. Analysts are reiterating buys on the recent dip, citing long-term uranium contract prices hitting $90/lb in Q1 2026—the highest level since 2008—which structurally insulates the company from spot market volatility.
Bear case · The bear case focuses on severe valuation overhang and near-term execution friction. Trading at over 90x trailing earnings, the stock is highly vulnerable to multiple compression if uranium spot prices stall or if AI capex digestion delays actual reactor deployments. Furthermore, recent supply chain disruptions—such as the May 2026 bridge collapse in northern Saskatchewan that temporarily halted Key Lake and McArthur River supply lines—highlight the operational fragility of remote mining assets.
Key risks
• Severe valuation overhang leaving no margin of safety if uranium prices plateau or hyperscaler nuclear timelines slip.
• Operational and supply chain disruptions at key Saskatchewan mines, as evidenced by recent infrastructure washouts.
• AI data center capex digestion in the 2026–2027 window delaying the deployment of SMRs and new reactor builds.
• Geopolitical shifts that could unexpectedly reintroduce sanctioned Russian or Kazakh supply to Western markets, cooling the "security premium."
LDOS 1.4%
Full research note
Leidos provides tech services to U.S. government agencies, heavily reliant on single customer.
FCX 1.3%
Full research note
Freeport-McMoRan is a global copper mining company exposed to commodity price volatility and geopolitical risks.
SCCO 1.2%
Full research note
Southern Copper mines, smelts, and refines copper in Peru and Mexico with geopolitical and trade risks.
Bull case · Structural copper demand from electrification, renewable energy, and AI data centers supports long-term price appreciation; SCCO's industry-leading margins (gross margin ~59%, operating margin ~58%) and low cash costs provide a wide moat; the Tía María project and strong free cash flow generation (FCF margin ~29%) offer additional upside if copper prices remain elevated and the US-Iran peace deal temporarily eases inflation fears, potentially lowering the dollar.
Bear case · The stock trades at a significant premium to its sector (P/E 29.2 vs. peer median 26.1; P/B 12.3 vs. 2.2) with a consensus analyst target ~15% below current price and a majority of sell/underperform ratings; a potential copper demand slowdown from China's economic struggles or renewed trade war escalation, combined with a hawkish Fed holding rates high for longer, could compress multiples and trigger a sharp correction. Additionally, the recent Iran peace deal may reduce the 'safe-haven' premium that had supported commodity currencies and metals.
Key risks
• Severe valuation overhang: SCCO is priced for perfection, leaving no margin of safety if copper prices retreat or costs rise.
• Geopolitical and regulatory risks in Peru, including potential mining tax overhauls and anti-mining protests that could disrupt operations.
• Macro sensitivity to a strong US dollar (the DXY remains elevated) and a potential Chinese economic slowdown, both of which would directly pressure copper prices.
• Execution risk at Tía María, a greenfield project with a history of community opposition; delays or cost overruns could erode returns.
• Elevated short interest (12.1% of float, 9.0 days to cover) signals significant bearish sentiment, increasing vulnerability to a downside catalyst-driven squeeze rather than an upside one.
NXE 1.0%
Full research note
NexGen Energy is a Canadian uranium exploration and development company advancing the Rook I project.
LMT 0.6%
Full research note
Lockheed Martin supplies advanced aerospace and defense systems primarily to the U.S. government under long-term contracts.
NOC 0.5%
Full research note
Northrop Grumman is a defense contractor for the U.S. government, heavily dependent on a single customer.
WPM 0.5%
Full research note
Streaming company buying precious metals via long-term contracts with high margins.
RTX 0.5%
Full research note
RTX is a large aerospace and defense contractor heavily dependent on US government contracts.
FNV 0.4%
Full research note
Gold-focused royalty and streaming company with diversified mining assets.
NTR 0.3%
Full research note
the model's cross-asset allocation posture candidate (R3 screen 2026-09-19). RS rank vs SPY: 81.6. Stage 2. Sub-industry RS rank: —. 12m return: 36.5%. Quality pass: net margin 8.4%, D/E 0.49.
MP 0.3%
Full research note
MP Materials mines and processes rare earth minerals in the US for EVs, defense, and clean energy.
UEC 0.3%
Full research note
Uranium exploration and extraction company using ISR, still in ramp-up with no proven reserves.
MOS 0.3%
Full research note
Global crop nutrient producer reliant on volatile commodity markets with no recurring revenue or network effects.
UUUU 0.3%
Full research note
Energy Fuels Inc. is a US uranium, vanadium, and rare earth miner operating the only licensed uranium mill in the country.
CF 0.2%
Full research note
the model's cross-asset allocation posture candidate (R3 screen 2026-09-19). RS rank vs SPY: 86.7. Stage 2. Sub-industry RS rank: —. 12m return: 51.7%. Quality pass: net margin 27.1%, D/E 0.63.
Bull case · The strongest bull case rests on a "tighter for longer" nitrogen market combined with sharply bullish analyst revision flow. With Middle Eastern supply offline and European natural gas prices spiking, CF's North American cost advantage is generating massive free cash flow. This dynamic has triggered a powerful R19-T10 bullish revision-momentum signal, with consensus FY2026 EPS estimates surging over 70% in the last 60 days, while the Trump administration's recent permitting boost for CF's Blue Point low-carbon ammonia project adds a durable clean-energy growth vector.
Bear case · The bear case argues that CF's recent 50%+ YTD rally has fully priced in the geopolitical premium, leaving the stock highly vulnerable to a sudden de-escalation in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and Middle Eastern capacity floods back into the market, global nitrogen prices will crater, rapidly compressing CF's currently inflated margins and triggering a cyclical mean-reversion selloff.
Key risks
• Geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East rapidly normalizing global nitrogen supply.
• Cyclical mean-reversion risk following a massive 50%+ YTD rally.
• Volatility in North American natural gas prices eroding the company's structural cost advantage.
• Potential operational fatigue or unplanned outages after delaying critical maintenance at the Donaldsonville complex.
HII 0.2%
Full research note
Nuclear and conventional military shipbuilder for the U.S. Navy, with a single-customer dependency.
SQM 0.2%
Full research note
SQM produces specialty plant nutrients, iodine, lithium, and industrial chemicals with operations in Chile and Australia.
HWM 0.2%
Full research note
Advanced aerospace components maker with high customer concentration and raw material exposure.
Bull case · The strongest sentiment-driven bull case revolves around Howmet's unassailable position in the single-crystal turbine blade duopoly and its accelerating free cash flow generation. Following the May 7 Q1 report, analysts have driven a sharply bullish revision flow (net +100.0% upward revisions over 30 days), reflecting confidence that Howmet's pricing power and operational efficiencies will continue to drive margin expansion. Furthermore, the market is increasingly pricing in a structural tailwind from the AI hardware buildout, as Howmet's IGT components are critical for powering new, energy-intensive data centers.
Bear case · The bear case focuses on valuation exhaustion and insider signaling, arguing that the stock is priced for perfection after a massive multi-year run. Bears point to the May 11 open-market sale of $11.3 million in stock by EVP Neil Marchuk just days after the Q1 earnings release as a sign that management sees limited near-term upside. Additionally, any prolonged production delays at Boeing or Airbus, combined with structurally higher discount rates, could trigger severe multiple compression for a stock trading at such a premium.
Key risks
• Insider selling cluster, highlighted by EVP Neil Marchuk's $11.3M sale on May 11 following the Q1 earnings beat.
• Valuation overhang, with the stock trading at a 54x P/E, leaving it vulnerable to multiple compression if growth decelerates.
• Customer concentration risk tied to Boeing and Airbus production ramps and potential supply chain disruptions.
• Margin compression threats from raw material (titanium, nickel) and energy cost inflation.
LEU 0.1%
Full research note
Centrus Energy supplies enriched uranium and nuclear fuel services to utilities and government clients.
SLV 0.1%
Full research note
Trust holding physical silver to reflect silver price performance.
Bull case · The strongest bullish sentiment anchors on the unprecedented industrial demand wave from AI infrastructure and newer TOPCon solar panels, which are structurally increasing silver intensity per unit. Proponents argue that with mine production severely constrained and consecutive years of global supply deficits, the current macro-driven selloff offers a generational entry point before physical shortages force a violent repricing.
Bear case · Bears point to the immediate macroeconomic reality: a structurally higher US dollar and elevated real yields under a hawkish Fed are crushing the monetary premium of precious metals. This has triggered massive volatility and forced liquidations, with the "safe haven" narrative unwinding rapidly amid potential Middle East de-escalation, leaving silver vulnerable to further downside if industrial demand softens in a recession.
Key risks
• Sustained hawkishness from the Federal Reserve driving real yields higher and accelerating ETF redemptions.
• A durable resolution to the Iran-Hormuz conflict draining the geopolitical safe-haven premium from precious metals.
• Technological substitution or "thrifting" in solar panel manufacturing reducing the silver intensity per cell.
• Intense fee competition from lower-cost physical silver ETFs eroding SLV's market share among retail investors.
LAC 0.1%
Full research note
Lithium Americas is a pre-production lithium developer building the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada.
ICL 0.1%
Full research note
ICL Group extracts specialty minerals from the Dead Sea for agriculture and industrial markets, relying on government concessions.
DNN 0.1%
Full research note
Exploration-stage uranium developer with no reserves or revenue.
Track Record
-3.87%
Model portfolio return
since 2026-08-21, vs 60/40 (SPY/AGG, daily-rebalanced) -1.12%
10%
Per-pick hit rate
4w, n=20
-5.5%
Mean alpha (4w)
-4.9%
Mean return (4w)
Macro forecasts: 198 graded, 862 open — each call is scored against what actually happened when its horizon arrived.
Positions, conflicts & disclosures
DISCLAIMER — NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE (DECISION-LINKED)
This publication provides GENERAL and IMPERSONAL commentary and analysis on a regular schedule. The same content is provided to every subscriber. It is NOT investment advice, is NOT tailored to any individual, and does NOT account for your personal financial situation, objectives, or risk tolerance.
This post reports (1) a rules-based MODEL portfolio — target weights produced by an automated system's published rules, identical for all readers — and (2) DECISION-LINKED activity: how that affiliated automated system actually implemented, or has queued to implement, those rules in accounts belonging to the publication's operator. Model weights are not an account statement; the decision-linked positions and pending orders are REAL and belong to accounts affiliated with this publication's operator. We publish them for transparency on a fixed schedule under our Trading & Publication Policy [link] — not as a recommendation that any security or strategy is suitable for you. Because the publisher and/or operator hold or intend to establish positions in the securities discussed, a conflict of interest exists and our interests may differ from yours.
Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security for you specifically. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance — model or actual — does not guarantee future results.
[Publisher LLC] is not a registered investment adviser and does not provide individualized investment advice. Consult a licensed professional before making any investment decision. See full disclosures, methodology, and our Trading & Publication Policy at [link].
POSITIONS DISCLOSURE: this is a hypothetical, rules-based model portfolio, not a statement of any individual's actual account; the publisher and/or author may hold positions in one or more of the securities listed.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST: because the publisher and/or author may hold listed securities, a conflict of interest exists and could benefit from price movements; the publisher receives no compensation for featuring any security, and this impersonal model illustration is not personalized investment advice or a solicitation to transact.
MICRO-CAP CAVEAT: some listed names are micro-capitalization securities held at small model weights; micro-caps carry elevated liquidity and volatility risk and are unsuitable for short-term trading — the small weights reflect that risk, and nothing here is a recommendation to scalp or rapidly trade thinly-traded securities.
Intended transactions: the affiliated automated system has open or queued target allocations in the following securities discussed here: ALB, IAU, LIT, QUAL, SCHP, SQM. These are real pending orders or model target weights in accounts belonging to the publication's operator, disclosed for transparency under our Trading & Publication Policy [link] — not a recommendation, and our interests may differ from yours.
Positions held: the publisher and/or operator currently holds positions in the following securities discussed here: CCJ, CF, COPX, DBC, DNN, EPI, EWJ, EWU, EZU, FCX, FNV, GDX, GE, HII, HWM, ICL, ITA, LAC, LDOS, LEU, LMT, LTPZ, MOS, MP, NOC, NTR, NXE, REMX, RTX, SCCO, SLV, TPL, UEC, URA, URNM, UUUU, VTIP, WPM, XAR.